Every week, homeowners across Ontario make the same mistake. They open their favourite real estate app, see a house down the street listed at $850,000, and immediately think: "My house must be worth at least that much — maybe more."
But here's the problem: listing prices are not market values. And the difference between the two can cost you thousands of dollars, whether you're selling, refinancing, or making investment decisions.
As Senior Vice President at Metrix Realty Group, I've seen this pattern repeat countless times over my career as an AACI-designated appraiser. The majority of residential clients who come to us out of curiosity about their property's value have already formed expectations based on listings they've seen online. What they don't realise is that those numbers can be misleading in several critical ways.
Key Takeaway
Listing prices represent sellers' asking prices, not what properties actually sell for. Professional appraisers rely on firm sale evidence to determine true market value — data that reflects what buyers are actually willing to pay in current market conditions.
The Three Common Misconceptions Ontario Property Owners Make
1. Confusing Listings with Actual Sales
When you see a property listed at $750,000, that number represents what the seller hopes to receive — not necessarily what they'll actually get. In Ontario's current market environment, where conditions can shift month to month, the gap between list price and sale price can be substantial.
A listing is essentially a negotiating starting point. It might be priced optimistically to test the market, or it could be strategically underpriced to generate bidding competition. Either way, it's not evidence of market value until a firm sale actually materializes.
Real-World Example:
A property in London, Ontario might be listed at $699,000 to generate interest, receive multiple offers, and sell for $740,000. Meanwhile, another property in the same neighbourhood listed at $725,000 sits on the market for 60 days and eventually sells for $680,000. Which listing price should you trust? Neither.
2. Using Outdated Sales Data
Even when property owners do look at actual sales data rather than listings, they often make a critical error: using comparables from six months, a year, or even longer ago.
We frequently have clients reference what a neighbour's house sold for a year ago. While that might have been a realistic indicator at that time, the market — especially in this environment — is in constant fluctuation.
As professional appraisers, we're required to value properties as of a specific date, using the most recent and relevant sales data available. This means looking at what has sold in the past 30-90 days, not what sold during last year's market conditions.
3. Ignoring Market Context and Timing
Even recent sales need proper context. A house that sold in February during a slower market period will command a different price than a comparable property that sells in May during the spring rush.
We have to understand the supply and demand factors at play on the specific date we're valuing a property. That means looking at what's actively competing with this property if it were on the market today, understanding current inventory levels, buyer sentiment, and recent market momentum.
Why We Use Different Methodology
When we value a property at Metrix Realty Group, we employ a comprehensive approach that goes far beyond checking a few listing prices online.
Multiple Reliable Data Sources
We have access to MLS systems (Toronto Real Estate Board, Cornerstone Real Estate Boards, Sarnia-Lambton Real Estate Board, and others) that provide detailed transaction data including:
- Actual sale prices, not just listing prices
- Days on market and pricing history
- Property features and conditions at the time of sale
- Terms and conditions of the transaction
- Verification that sales were arm's-length transactions
Additionally, we use platforms like CoStar for commercial properties and subdivisions, which provide detailed market trends, rental rates, capitalization rates, and broader economic indicators.
Time-Sensitive Comparable Selection
We select comparables that are:
- As recent as possible (ideally within 90 days)
- As similar as possible to the subject property in size, features, condition, and location
- Reflective of current market conditions as of the valuation date
We're always trying to be as current and up-to-date as possible. We're not just looking at what has sold — we're also looking at what's actively listed that would compete with the property if it were for sale today.
Contextual Market Analysis
Every property is evaluated within its specific neighbourhood context. Not all neighbourhoods are created equal, even within the same city.
A client might be worried because recent market news says prices are declining. But a thorough analysis looks at trends as a whole while also diving into that specific neighbourhood. One area might be holding value well while another is seeing more significant adjustments.
Location is king when it comes to real estate. Really diving into that neighbourhood, knowing the differences between different areas, and understanding that not every neighbourhood is created equal is essential to providing accurate valuations.
The Real Cost of Misinformation
Making decisions based on listing prices and outdated sales data isn't just academically incorrect — it has real financial consequences:
For Sellers:
- Overpricing based on optimistic listings leads to extended time on market, which can actually reduce your final sale price as buyers perceive the property as "stale"
- Underpricing based on dated comparables means leaving money on the table
For Refinancing:
- Unrealistic expectations about home equity can derail refinancing plans
- Lenders require professional appraisals precisely because they know homeowner estimates are often inaccurate
For Investment Decisions:
- Purchasing decisions based on flawed valuation assumptions can lead to negative cash flow or poor returns
- Estate planning and tax strategies require accurate, defensible valuations
What to Do Instead: The Professional Approach
If you're a property owner in Ontario trying to understand your property's value, here's what professional appraisers recommend:
1. Prioritize Actual Sales Over Listings
Use platforms like HouseSigma or Realtor.ca to look at sold properties, not active listings. But remember that even these need proper context and analysis.
2. Focus on Recent Transactions
Give the most weight to sales within the past 30-90 days. Anything older than six months should be heavily discounted in your analysis, especially in volatile markets.
3. Consider Market Momentum
Are sales prices trending up or down? Is inventory increasing or decreasing? These factors significantly impact current values.
4. Hire a Professional When It Matters
For any significant financial decision — selling, refinancing, estate planning, tax appeals, or investment analysis — the cost of a professional appraisal is minimal compared to the potential cost of getting it wrong.
When clients come to us, they're looking for certainty and clarity. They have an uncertainty about their asset, and they need an unbiased, professional opinion to add certainty to their decision-making.
Why You Can't DIY Complex Valuations
Even for residential properties — the "simplest" type of real estate to value — it's extremely difficult to decouple your emotional attachment and personal bias from objective market analysis. Professional appraisers provide third-party opinions specifically because they aren't attached to the property and can evaluate it based purely on market evidence and established methodology.
The Bottom Line
Ontario's real estate market is complex and constantly evolving. While online tools and listing websites can provide interesting information, they're no substitute for professional analysis when financial decisions are at stake.
Listing prices are marketing tools, not market values. Outdated sales data reflects yesterday's market, not today's. And without proper context, even good data can lead to bad decisions.
If you're making any significant decisions about your property — whether you're selling, refinancing, estate planning, or evaluating investment opportunities — working with an AACI-designated appraiser ensures you're basing those decisions on accurate, defensible valuations grounded in current market evidence.
Because when tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake, "close enough" isn't good enough.
